The Year 2020 has passed over the past few weeks and we have survive another year under fear of the pandemic which has brought a lot of challenges over the past month after the COVID 19 SARS-COV 2 in December 2019. As we Filipinos are hopefully awaiting the arrival of the Anti-COVID 19 vaccine to our shore which is one of the key factor to help jump start the economy again to recovery. Although, the vaccine is NOT a magic pill or a silver bullet to annihilate this disease. It will tremendously help of those infected with better chance of survival but surely challenging times lay ahead with new variants of SARS-COV2.
COVID 19 B117 (UK Strain) Now in the Phililppines
Trending, the news report concerning the entry of COVID-19 UK variant / strain (B.1.1.7) which was discovered from a returning OFWs who have arrived for a short vacation for the holidays from Hong Kong, UAE and United Kingdom. The Inter-Agency Task Force for the Emerging Disease Response (IATF) on the temporary banning of travel of incoming overseas Filipinos and foreigners from affected countries. However, spikes of COVID 19 infection is rising in areas highly affected such as Cordillera Autonomous Region, National Capital Region and other cities and provinces in Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao will undergo General Community Quarantine starting February 1 to 28.
Economic Outlook for 1st half of 2021
Still
the country is reeling on a economic depression at -9.5% dip in
Gross Domestic Product as the previously forecast at -11.5% and
balancing the public health and economy is very hard to satisfactorily
fulfill as it needs the right discipline and cooperation from the people
including political will from our politicians. There is less spending
in the public and an estimated around 4 to 4.5 million Filipinos lost
their jobs because of closure of business resorting to an unemployment
of around 10.4 per cent - the highest in 15 years. Recent reports from
news sources say that the Philippines will have a slowest recovery
against the pandemic and is 79th out of 98 countries in their
performance against this crisis as of this writing.
Tightened Real Estate Lending
In a recent move by commercial banks, real estate lending had become more stringent in terms of commercial lending to would be buyers / borrowers because of the economic slow down. As banks tightened their lending standards, it would be a bit challenging yet competitive for banks to get borrowers because of lesser spending which contributed to the gross domestic product of the country. There are possible high defaults or non-payment of loans from financial institutions that high cases foreclosures in the coming months because of economic hardships. Home Mutual Development Fund (PAG-IBIG) still remains as the top choice of home buyers who are voluntary members who a contributed a portion of their salary to this government controlled corporation. Some Land developers on the other hand, have become creative in facilitating credit loans to home buyers who have no access to HMDF or commercial bank through in-house financing which are average at around 12% per year maximum up to 10 years or so.
Positive Demand & Opportunities for Real Estate?
The property market outlook for 2021 is a bit lowered as expected with the investors and businessmen confidence have waned down due to slow response of the national government on the public health crisis. According to other sources, the property market will focus mostly primarily on residential real estate outside of NCR, facilities for warehousing and logistic centers and some speculation with telecommunication due to the aggressive move of a third telecommunications service provider - DITO Telecommunity Philippines.
IT-BPO companies will still remain as top employer in our country with workers opting to work from home. However, increase in cost in acquisition of new equipment for work from home setup is adding expenses to these companies and are possibly moving out from the country to more labor friendly countries which is still in question at of this writing.
Continuing construction of infrastructures will still continue under a "new normal" with extended date of deadline but with lesser number of workers at 30% based on IATF guidelines.
Recent trends of the market cycle
of people from National Capital Region are searching towards nearby
provinces such as Pampanga, Bulacan and Tarlac as their second home or
possibly migrate to these provinces which are closer and highly
accessible to Metro Manila.
Sources:
- New coronavirus variant: What do we know?
- Preliminary genomic characterisation of an emergent SARS-CoV-2 lineage in the UK defined by a novel set of spike mutations
- Banks tighten lending standards
- Banks’ confidence in PHL economy wanes–BSP poll
- Philippines real estate: does Metro Manila’s move towards flexible online payment and virtual luxury home inspections make now a good time to invest
- PH economy plunges by record -9.5% in 2020 as Q4 GDP maintains slump
- Philippines among laggards at 79th out of 98 countries in pandemic response index
- Philippines suffers worst job losses in 15 years due to Covid-19 and lockdown
- Metro Manila, Cordillera Region under GCQ status in February
- Photo Credits: freedigitalphotos.net
About the Writer
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