Monday, January 13, 2020

Philippine Economic Outlook for 2020



Amidst the ongoing trade war between China and the United States of America including global issues pertaining to climate change, human rights and humanitarian crises happening around world and this country. Philippine economists  are optimistic are optimistic on our country's growth for year 2020. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Deputy Governor General Francsico Dakila Jr. have recently reported good news collating with other non-government agencies such as Asian Development Bank are in fact optimistic with the growth of the Philippines with their positive economic forecast.


Four Factors that contribute to Positive Economic Growth Forecast for Year 2020

1. Inflation lowering at 2.8%


In the coming months price levels should normalize. However with the current situation in the Middle east on U.S. - Iran tensions have shown significant rise on fuel in the global market. However, the spike on prices will be temporary from previous conflicts happening back in  Persian Gulf War of 1990 and Invasion and Occupation of Iraq from 2003 to 2011. 

Source: tradingeconomics.com 


2. GDP rebounded to 6.3%

With the completion of the Build, build, build projects in the pipeline laid out by National Economic Development Authority's (NEDA) 2017-2022 Philippine Development Plan in the past few years during their terms of office  of former presidents Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and Benigno S. Aquino, Jr. The growth through government planned infrastructure spending has increased tremendously. Malacanan  have hopes of pushing the Philippine economy forward with these projects that affect the whole archipelago from roads, transportation and communication which are vital in the economic growth of the Philippines. 

3. PSEi expected to breach above 9,000 level

Although there is no specific drivers to reach the 9,000 level. Foreign flows and investors interests could be driven with different factors from economic developments leading to infrastructure building on transportation, road network, telecommunications and others. There is high hopes of fueling the increase in this year although with a slow turnaround on recent low stock market turnout due to tensions happening in the Middle-east and US - China trade war.



4. Philippine Peso vs U.S. Dollar Exchanges Test at 50.00 level


Peso may continue to strengthen from P 50.00 to US $ 1.00  level this year as opposed the expected 52.00 peso to US$ 1.00 from previous forecast last year. There is faster economic expansion is expected to grow the current account shortfall with high demand for the dollars to support the growing economy of the country. It is believed that Philippine peso to US dollar level was expected at P 48.50 to US$ 1.00 by 2021. 


Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas

There is a lot of positive outlook on coming months ahead with the government's initiative and political will. Although there are uncertainties in the global economic markets and crisis arising from climate change, natural disasters, conflicts in the Middle East, Korean Peninsula and South China Sea and many more.


Source(s)



BSP cuts 2019-2020 inflation forecasts https://bit.ly/2ZR2nKh 
IMF cuts Philippine growth forecasts anew https://bit.ly/2Qy22aW
PSEi to hit 9000 level in 2020  https://bit.ly/2ZL5Bim
Peso seen to depreciate until 2020 — Fitch Solutions https://bit.ly/36jdyxy 
Philippine Peso per US Dollar ($) Exchange Rate https://bit.ly/37Q2Y1i


About the Writer


CRB Benedict Baluyut is a professional real estate broker, real estate appraiser and associate of C. F. Baluyut Realty. He is currently the Vice President for External Affairs, Real Estate Brokers Association of the Philippines, Inc. (REBAP) - Pampanga Chapter. You can get in touch with him at https://www.cfbaluyutrealty.com.





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